מידי יום אני (אשתדל) לפרסם את הניתוח של קורנליוס לוקה לארבעה מטבעות:

יורו\דולר

שטרלינג\דולר

דולר\יין

דולר\פרנק שוויצרי

הניתוח הוא באנגלית וזכרו שהניתוח הוא לא הזמנה לקנות\לרכוש\למכור\לסחור ולא אני ולא קונליוס אחראים לביצוע שום פעולה שלכם בשוק המט"ח או בכל שוק אחר על סמך המידע המוצג כאן.

כל הקרדיט הולך לקונליוס לוקה, ולא אליי. תודה קורנליוס.

Forex Market Commentary for March 19, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar slumped across the board on Friday, as expected, following mixed US data. The dollar should attempt to make a weak recovery since the stock markets held their own.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar surged to a new high for the uptrend on Friday but Monday should see some reprieve.

Above 1.3338, the euro/dollar would eye a pivotal high at 1.3367. The pair then has strong resistance at 1.3435 and 1.3475.

Initial support is at 1.3250. The next level remains in place at 1.3200. Below 1.3155, the pair has support at 1.3130.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell on Friday, as expected, reversing the previous day’s gains. It should now consolidate.

The key level at least early in the week is at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Below the Gann level at 116.00 there is another important 50-point pivot which targets 115.00 and 116.00.

Above 117.10, resistance comes at 117.50. Strong resistance follows at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied to a two-week high on Friday and finally managed to break out of the range of March 5. The pair closed well off its highs and should edge lower today.

Initial support is at 1.9370. Good support lies at 1.9300. Next levels are pegged at 1.9250 and 1.9210.

Above 1.9460, strong resistance is at 1.9500. Above 1.9560, distant pivotal resistance is at 1.9672.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc sank to a three-month low on Friday. It should now edge up for a day or so.

Initial resistance comes Initial resistance comes from the breakout point at 1.2105. If this level breaks, then the dollar should recover further to 1.2145.

Below 1.2030, a Fibonacci retracement level I mentioned in the previous report, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Forex Market Commentary for March 20, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar made the expected weak recovery on Monday versus all the majors except for the pound. The quid was helped up by another positive housing report. The US currency should attempt another recovery today.

Euro/dollar

One day after surging to a new high for the uptrend, euro/dollar saw the expected mild reprieve. It got stuck in an inside range, saw more information is needed.

Initial support remains at 1.3250. The next level is still in place at 1.3200. Below 1.3155, the pair has support at 1.3130.

Above 1.3338, the euro/dollar would eye a pivotal high at 1.3367. The pair then has strong resistance at 1.3435 and 1.3475.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

For the past three days dollar/yen has alternated up and down days, going nowhere fast, and Monday was the up day. It must break above 118.25 to snap this “pattern” or else it will slip and consolidate further.

So, initial resistance comes at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.

Initial support is at 117.99. The key support level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar reversed early losses on Monday with help from another positive report about the housing sector. The pair closed within an inside range and needs more information from here.

Immediate resistance is at 1.9460 and strong resistance follows at 1.9500. Above 1.9560, distant pivotal resistance is at 1.9672.

Initial support is at 1.9380. Good support then lies at 1.9300. Next levels are pegged at 1.9250 and 1.9210.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

One day after sinking to a three-month low, dollar/Swiss rallied on Monday, as expected. It got stuck in an inside range, but should try to continue this recovery.

Initial resistance comes at 1.2150. If this level breaks, then the dollar should recover further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.

Strong support is at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

יופי רונן

אחלה עבודה

אולי פעם בשבוע נוכל לעשות סטטיסטיקות על הניתוח שלו ולראות רטרואקטיבית מה רמת הדיוק של הבחור, רוו/הפסד צפוי, ירידה מקסימלית וכו'

נתעדכן איתך בהמשך

בוקר יום רביעי טוב לכולם, הנה הניתוח של אתמול (יום שלישי):

Forex Market Commentary for March 21, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The pound surged on Tuesday after a high inflation report rekindled considerations for another rate hike in the U.K. Dollar/yen fell briefly on a misunderstood report about China’s FX reserves. Elsewhere, the other European currencies marked time. Expect consolidation today.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar traded sideways on Tuesday. It remained stuck in an inside range, so more information is needed.

Initial support remains at 1.3250. The next level is still in place at 1.3200. Below 1.3155, the pair has support at 1.3130.

Above 1.3338, the euro/dollar would eye a pivotal high at 1.3367. The pair then has strong resistance at 1.3435 and 1.3475.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

The dollar fell temporarily against the yen on Tuesday following a report that China would stop stockpiling foreign exchange reserves. The reaction was overdone, given that the news didn’t say China will reduce existing FX reserves, so dollar/yen should attempt to go up today.

The pair had trouble climbing above 118.00, so the short–term long positions were unceremoniously squeezed out. There were two floors at 117.70 and 117.60 and once they broke, dollar/yen fell freely toward 117.00. But this level was well defended, and the pair found its footing above it.

The key support level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support I sat 115.50.

Initial resistance comes at 117.65. Strong resisatnce follows at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Cable surged to a 3 ½-week high on the U.K. CPI data, breaking the resistance of a trendline declining since January 23. The upside should be targeted further today, but the pace of the upmove should decelerate markedly.

Initial resistance is at 1.9630 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9672, resistance is pegged at 1.9746

Strong support is at 1.9550. Below 1.9490, the pair has further support at 1.9430. Distant support now lies at 1.9375.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss marked time on Tuesday and remained stuck in an inside range. More information is needed.

Initial resistance remains at 1.2150. If this level breaks, then the dollar should recover further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.

Strong support is still seen at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

בוקר טוב לכולם. הנה הניתוח של יםו האתמול (יום רביעי):

Forex Market Commentary for March 22, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar made a collapsing decline late on Wednesday on concern that the Federal Reserve may cut rates. In fact, the Fed kept its rate unchanged at 5.25%, as universally expected, and noted the recent weaker economic performance and higher inflation. However, it dropped language that covered the possibility that interest rates would be raised in the future. The slide was overdone, so the dollar should attempt to recover.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar surged to a two-year high in the wake of the Fed event. It has triggered a bullish flag, but I doubt it will go up without a pause.

Above 1.3385, the euro/dollar has resistance at 1.3435 and 1.3475. The pair then has distant resistance at 1.3610.

Initial support remains at 1.3345. Below 1.3315, the next level is seen at 1.3270. Distant support is at 1.3200.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

The dollar/yen edged higher n Wednesday, as expected, but got stuck in an inside range. Since consolidation should continue, dollar/yen should edge lower today.

The pair had trouble climbing above 118.00, so the short–term long positions were unceremoniously squeezed out. There were two floors at 117.70 and 117.60 and once they broke, dollar/yen fell freely toward 117.00. But this level was well defended, and the pair found its footing above it.

Immediate support is at 117.00. The key support level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support I sat 115.50.

Initial resistance comes at 117.65. Strong resistance follows at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied for the sixth consecutive day and reached a 1 ½-month high. The pair had been hurt only briefly early on Wednesday by news that the BoE’s MPC voted 8-1 to keep its benchmark rate at a five-year high of 5.25 percent this month. The rally was overdone, so the pair should peak after the release of the UK retail sales report and slip on profit taking.

Initial resistance is at 1.9755 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9830, resistance is pegged at 1.9915 from a pivot high.

Strong support is at 1.9650. Below 1.9545, the pair has further support at 1.9490. Distant support is now seen at 1.9375.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed early gains and closed lower on Wednesday. However, the pair remains stuck in last Friday’s range. More information is needed.

Support is still seen at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.

Initial resistance remains at 1.2150. If this level breaks, then the dollar should recover further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

ניתוח של אתמול (יום חמישי):

Forex Market Commentary for March 23, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar rallied sharply on Thursday, and this confirms my expectations that the market overreacted on the downside late on Wednesday. The market rightfully showed little reaction to the Leasing indicators report. On Friday, the dollar should edge higher, after forming bullish reversal formations against the euro and the pound..

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar fell from a two-year high on Thursday and formed a bearish reversal formation. This means the bullish flag it formed a day earlier is on hold. It should edge lower today, but only a vigorous break below 1.3300 would turn the outlook negative.

Key support is at 1.3300 from a trendline rising since March 9. Below 1.3270, the next level is seen at 1.3220. Distant support is at 1.3200.

Initial resistance is at 1.3340. Above 1.3385, the euro/dollar has resistance at 1.3435 and 1.3475. The pair then has distant resistance at 1.3610.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

The dollar/yen rallied to a 10-day high and this finally broke the one-day-up/one-day-down pattern. This rally will not continue without a pause.

Initial resistance comes at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.

Immediate support is at 117.70. The key support level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support I sat 115.50.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell from a 1 ½-month high and formed a bearish reversal formation. The pair should edge lower today.

Strong support is at 1.9550. Below 1.9500, the pair has further support at 1.94450. Distant support is now seen at 1.9375.

Initial resistance is at 1.9725. Next level is 1.9755 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9830, resistance is pegged at 1.9915 from a pivot high.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed early losses and formed an outside . However, the pair remains stuck in last Friday’s range, so more information is needed.

Initial resistance remains at 1.2190. If this level breaks, then the dollar should recover further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.

Initial support is at 1.2140. Support is then seen at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish